The OFEN has evaluated the development potential of the hydro power [1]. The results of the study are presented on the next table:
Development potential of the hydro power [GWh/year][1] | ||
---|---|---|
Actual conditions | Optimized conditions | |
New big plants | 770 | 1'430 |
Small hydro | 1'290 | 1'600 |
Transformation, extension | 870 | 1'530 |
LEaux effects | -1'400 | -1'400 |
Total net potential | 1'530 | 3'160 |
PROGNOS(2012) [2] has based its forecast for 2050 on the development potential under optimized conditions of OFEN(2012) [1] and it has done the next distribution between hydro river and hydro dam.
Development potential of the hydro power [GWh/year][2] | |
---|---|
Small hydro | 1600 |
Hydro river | 2000 |
Hydro dam | 900 |
LEaux effects | -1400 |
Total net potential | 3100 |
The next assumptions have been considered to calculate the net potential development for hydro river and hydro dam by 2050:
The net development potentials for each technology are added to the 2011 net electricity production [3] to obtain the electricity production potential of Swiss hydro power plants in 2050:
Net electricity production [TWh/year]* | ||
---|---|---|
2011 | 2050 | |
Hydro river | 16.94 | 19.85 |
Hydro dam | 17.29 | 17.48 |
For the cost model it is necessary to know how the new electricity production is obtained (new dams, new run of river plants, existing plants improvement and renovation). The next table has been created with the information from PROGNOS(2012)[2] and OFEN(2012)[1].
Brut development potential by 2050 [GWh/year] | ||
---|---|---|
Hydro river | Hydro dam | |
Renovation and extension | 677 | 793 |
New big plants | 1324 | 108 |
New small plants | 1600 | 0 |