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+ | ====== Estimating employment from the energy transition ====== | ||
+ | This indicator estimates the additional jobs (measured in full time job equivalents, | ||
+ | * Public transport | ||
+ | * Freight transport | ||
+ | * Vehicle trade & maintenance | ||
+ | * Hydropower | ||
+ | * Nuclear power | ||
+ | * Solar photovoltaics | ||
+ | * Wind power | ||
+ | * Other renewables | ||
+ | * Fossil industry | ||
+ | * Electricity distribution and trade | ||
+ | * Building & Heating | ||
+ | * Industrial processes | ||
+ | * Indirect employment | ||
+ | |||
+ | The energy transition pursues essentially two objectives: improving energy efficiency in all sectors (transport, building, industry, appliances) to reduce fossil energy consumption and thus CO2 emissions, and increase the share of renewable sources in the energy mix. To estimate the impact on employment, a top down methodological approach using input output tables (IOTs) with employment statistics per activity is combined with a bottom up validation of employment figures for specific sectors. | ||
+ | |||
+ | The input-output analysis assumes a constant economic structure, in the form of fixed transaction coefficients between economic activities. To adapt this structure to future scenarios, changes in economic growth and labor productivity were applied per activity as follows: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ^Activities^Parameters considered^Reference unit^ | ||
+ | ^Transportation | Transport type (public/ | ||
+ | ^Freight | Rail/road, volume, distance travelled | ||
+ | ^Vehicle trade and maintenance | Vehicle/ | ||
+ | ^Energy consumption | Final energy (electricity, | ||
+ | ^Building and energy efficiency | Heated surfaces, retrofitting rate | m< | ||
+ | ^Industrial processes | With/-out proactive optimization | ||
+ | ^Energy production | Production technology, energy carriers | ||
+ | ^Economic growth | GDP growth rate | % yearly increase | ||
+ | |||
+ | Energy efficiency is accounted for in two ways in the calculation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ wiki: | ||
+ | |||
+ | where X is the total output vector, I the identity matrix, A the matrix of transaction coefficient and Y the final demand in the reference year (2011) and target year (2050). EF is a vector of employment factors that can be retrieved from the current number of full time job equivalents (FTE) per activity over the value added (VA) for the given activity j as defined in Eq. (2): | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ wiki: | ||
+ | |||
+ | where p is the annual productivity increase in percentage and n the number of years (e.g. from 2011 to 2050). FTE and VA data are released every year by the Federal Statistics Office (FSO). Productivity data p comes from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). | ||
+ | |||
+ | In IO analysis direct employment is considered as employment in the corresponding activity to produce a given output. To evaluate the employment contribution of each activity including intermediate uses, direct employment considers all jobs in a given activity j as well as the jobs induced by the activity amongst the tier 1 suppliers. Indirect employment considers the jobs of supporting activities to the direct one (e.g. tier 2 suppliers, services to the activity not related to the production process, etc). | ||
+ | |||
+ | With the above definition, Eq. 3 gives the direct employment from the new added value and employment factors calculated in Eq. 2. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ wiki: | ||
+ | |||
+ | where // | ||
+ | |||
+ | To avoid double counting between direct and indirect jobs, the contribution of indirect employment was set to zero for all the activities immediately related to the energy transition (e.g. electricity generation, passenger transportation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ wiki: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Using the new indirect coefficient matrix Aindir, the indirect employment is then calculated with Eq. 5. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ wiki: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Data Sources ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | An extended version of the IOT for the year 2008 is used with disaggregated energy and transport sectors as well as energy accounts [[# | ||
+ | The annual rate of economic growth was harmonized with that proposed in PROGNOS for the sake of consistency with a default value of 0.72% per year up to 2035 and 0.79% up to 2050. Energy demand and energy mix per sector (industry, services and households) comes from PROGNOS [[# | ||
+ | Productivity increase of 2.3%, 1.5% and 0.9% per year for the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors respectively was applied on employment factors from the mean over the last 18 years. The Swiss State Secretariat for Economy (SECO) predicts a stabilization of the productivity growth rate around 0.9% yearly increase, thus the mean increase was adjusted accordingly. | ||
+ | Regarding buildings, the current annual rate of renovation stands at 0.9% per year and should be increased to achieve expected energy efficiency targets of the Swiss energy transition scenario [[# | ||
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+ | [[general_indicators|Go back to general indicators]] | ||
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+ | ===== References ===== | ||
+ | [1] [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | [2] [[https:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | [3] [[http:// | ||
+ | |||
+ | [4] [[http:// |